This weekend update well take look at the The US Dollar Index Futures vs. Light Sweet Crude Oil Future. There appears to be an odd price effect the past weeks in three parts.
The US Dollar and Oil Futures have been making lower highs and lower lows. Often they trade inverse from each other.
The price of gas at the pump has gone higher during the past weeks. That has been inverse from the oil future price. I find that as odd to a point.
Let me first explain the price higher at the gas pump. Some of this has to do with the price of the US Dollar. Since Oil Futures are priced in US Dollars. Since the past several weeks the US Dollar has gotten weeker it cost more dollars to buy Oil. You might find that odd since Oil Futures have gone lower why gas prices at the pump still have gone higher.
As prior mention the US Dollar Futures vs. Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures often trade inverse. But the past days have both been declining. This is not expected to continue. I have several reasons for this.
Ask yours self do gas prices typical go higher in the summer yes or no? If they do then future traders may step in as buyers that would increase future prices in part.
The main stream media outlets may soon start up their cheer leading for WAR and cause fear to increase buying in the oil futures.
Then any of the unexpected may occur; Hurricane, oil refinery shut down, further expansion of the Middle East up rising.
Lets take a look further at the charts daily, weekly and monthly. Can you determine how much lower oil may go till it reverse back up in prices? Were do you see a near term support level in the monthly chart? Hint it may be a big round even number! If we brake below that price level well Oy vey!
US Dollar Index Futures vs. Light, Sweet Crude Oil Futures
>>> daily chart <<<
EXHIBIT 1.1 Daily Chart (US Dollar Index vs. Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures)
>>> weekly chart <<<
EXHIBIT 1.2 Weekly Chart (US Dollar Index vs. Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures)
The weekly charts appear to reflect the US Dollar Index Futures as a bias towards BEARISH vs the Oil Futures as a bias towards BULLISH.
Since we just had the ended of the month and the first 1/4 of the year end. Lets view the monthly charts.
>>> monthly chart <<<
EXHIBIT 1.3 Monthly Chart (US Dollar Index vs. Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures)
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